Pennsylvania’s job reports data have since been revised, depicting a less-than-ideal picture than previous estimates. New figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) are significantly lower than earlier predictions. Originally, Pennsylvania was set for record job growth; however, the state only added 33,000 jobs as compared to the originally projected 70,000 jobs.
The revisions project weaknesses in several industries. Professional services lost 4,600 positions, previously projected to add 2,800 jobs. Retail cut 5,700 jobs but was previously projected to have only lost 600. Nonprofits have gained 500 jobs, but in stark contrast, were initially projected to gain 7,600 jobs. Healthcare jobs were reduced by 6,300 jobs from the projected number, and 5,400 jobs from the projected number, resulting in a scaled-back social assistance program. These job revisions reflect national trends, with new federal data showing that nearly one million fewer jobs were created in 2024 than initially reported.
Why are these numbers so significantly different from the original projections? For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment survey is voluntary; employers experiencing growth are more likely to respond than struggling businesses. However, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) includes all employers covered under unemployment insurance, which creates better, more accurate data.
A legislative study contrasted areas of growth in the Commonwealth’s economy. Warehouse development has increased by 35%, resulting in the construction of 246 new warehouses, likely due to an increase in e-commerce. PA is a transportation hub, counties along interstate 78, 80, and 81 in Cumberland, Franklin, and Berks experiencing the highest increases, supporting 107,000 direct jobs and 21,00 linked to supply chains. While there is an increase in jobs, these warehouses raise concerns about traffic congestion, loss of agricultural land, and zoning issues.
For businesses within the Commonwealth, these revisions necessitate a strategic shift. Companies should not rely on headlines to drive expansions or investments, as revised data projects slower, uneven growth. Businesses in retail, healthcare, human services, and nonprofits are faced with fewer workers, which makes it challenging to sustain growth. However, warehouse expansion demonstrates the growing demand for the trucking and supply chain industries, which could lead to higher growth opportunities.
These revisions also demonstrate how Pennsylvania’s economy is closely tied to federal policies, particularly in terms of aid programs, tax incentives, and interest rates, which have a direct impact on hiring and investment. It is crucial that PA enacts policies that increase entrepreneurship, expand the workforce, and attract investment, so that PA can remain a competitive workforce. This will ensure that, regardless of federal uncertainty, PA can stay strong in the job sector.
The revised job data in Pennsylvania demonstrates that, while PA continues to expand, it is at a much slower rate than previously anticipated. Businesses must look at internal growth and strategy before moving forward with expansion. It is vital to look at specific sectors and continue to engage with policy makers to ensure successful business expansion and create a strong environment for long-term business success and place the Commonwealth’s economy in a strong position for long-term success.